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What you'll learn

Construct valid mathematical models capturing the natural history of a given infectious disease

Interpret compartmental models in terms of rates, proportions and delays

Describe the fundamental processes driving the dynamics of an SIR epidemic and show their relation to important concepts

Explain mechanisms by which susceptibility can change over time and develop a simple SIR model to account for these under given parameters

There are 4 modules in this course

Compartmental modelling is a cornerstone of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and this course will introduce some of the basic concepts in building compartmental models, including how to interpret and represent rates, durations and proportions. You'll learn to place the mathematics to one side and concentrate on gaining intuition into the behaviour of a simple epidemic, and be introduced to further basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology, such as the basic reproduction number (R0) and its implications for infectious disease dynamics. To express the mathematical underpinnings of the basic drivers that you study, you'll use the simple SIR model, which, in turn, will help you examine different scenarios for reproduction numbers. Susceptibility to infection is the fuel for an infectious disease, so understanding the dynamics of susceptibility can offer important insights into epidemic dynamics, as well as priorities for control.

Anatomy of an Epidemic

Combining Modelling and Insights

Dynamics of Susceptibles